Kent

Is Microsoft Dead? Paul Graham decided to post a "yes" over the weekend, and all the cool kids are commenting. Apart from the fact that it's a pretty standard troll, and that I'm far from cool, I've decided to kick in my 2 cents (Canadian).

The basic thesis to Paul's post is that Microsoft has become irrelevant to the vast majority of computer users, and that other companies (notably Google) are now the prime motivators. That broadband and Ajax have conspired to level the playing field, removing the need for Windows and Office.

There is no doubt that Google rules the roost with search and advertising. I keep hearing that Live Search (assuming they're still calling it that this week) has improved. I don't know, as I've never really given it a chance. I've misliked hitting any of the Live pages -- they seem messy, and the adverts and password requests seem awkward and intrusive. (I also hate it now that MSDN frequently asks me for a password just so I can search for an API). In addition, I use Google Apps for Domains for my email and a lot of other work lately. I use Firefox as my primary browser, switching back to IE only when the site doesn't work well with FF (usually when it's a Microsoft site, strangely enough). However, I do most of my work on Windows, fire up Word and Excel when I need to work on a document, and use Visual Studio to develop. To me, and I imagine to most of you, Microsoft is incredibly relevant.

And now to the core of Paul's argument, and I think the core flaw:

Microsoft cast a shadow over the software world for almost 20 years starting in the late 80s. I can remember when it was IBM before them. I mostly ignored this shadow. I never used Microsoft software, so it only affected me indirectly—for example, in the spam I got from botnets. And because I wasn't paying attention, I didn't notice when the shadow disappeared.

So, he never used Microsoft software, but somehow now sees them as irrelevant? Well, on that sense, I suppose that Unix (but not Linux), PhotoShop, and Assembly Language programming are dead as I've never needed any of them.

Even more than those of us in the VS echo chamber, or those in Silicon Valley in the Web 2.0 echo chamber, are the millions of computer users who, "just want a computer." Your parents, the people at the office that do the bulk of the work, the people that wander the aisles at Future Shop or Best Buy waiting for a sales person to point them at something. Is Microsoft relevant to them? They frequently need Windows, or Office, and therefore will buy a Windows machine. I love my Mac, and it was a wedge to get my wife from asking me for computer help, but I don't think many make that choice. Sales figures seem to agree with me. Vista or not, these people will look to Microsoft for quite some time to come to provide them an OS and office tools.

Having said all this, I think Microsoft needs to begin to do things to maintain this relevancy. However, I need to do a bunch of stuff around the house on this rainy, grey April Sunday, so that will have to wait until the next post. Toodles for now.